# Time of AGI

A single, continuously recalibrated public estimate of when artificial general intelligence arrives, together with the complete unedited record of every change ever made to that estimate. Run by the Artificial Intelligence and Humanity Alliance Association (Yapay Zeka ve İnsanlık İttifakı Derneği, https://respectai.org), an organisation whose purpose is to act as an intermediary so that humanity and AGI walk a shared path. The estimate is recalibrated daily at 06:00 UTC from public news, arXiv and Hacker News feeds. It is a signal-tracking model, not a calibrated forecast. All data is available as JSON, without authentication, under CC-BY-4.0. Past estimates, including wrong ones and reversals, are never deleted or edited.

## Current prediction

- [Prediction API](https://zzsgkxnfcqymyuqbcwun.supabase.co/functions/v1/prediction): Current estimated AGI date, days remaining, last shift in days, acceleration score (0-5, 2.5 = unchanged pace), confidence (0-1), stated reason, key factors, and the latest briefing in English and Turkish.
- [Homepage](https://timeofagi.com/): The same values rendered for people, plus a live countdown.

## Full history

- [History API](https://zzsgkxnfcqymyuqbcwun.supabase.co/functions/v1/history): Every calibration ever recorded, newest first. Supports ?limit= (default 100, max 1000) and ?offset=, and returns a total count. Each entry carries a `source` field: "legacy_grok_pipeline" or "current". The response also carries `record_notes` describing the seam below.
- [Archive page](https://timeofagi.com/archive): The same record for people, with honesty statistics — total calibrations, mean absolute shift, largest single shift, accelerations versus decelerations, and net movement — shown over all entries and over the current pipeline alone.

From February to August 2026 the estimate was produced by an external script that wrote to a different database from the one this site reads, so the site showed a frozen number for six months while the script kept running. That script's model call was failing silently and fell back to a placeholder value, which is why roughly 160 imported entries show no change and the text "Analysis ongoing." Those failures are part of the record and have not been removed. The current pipeline replaced it on 12 August 2026, writes to this database, and fails loudly instead of writing placeholders.

## Welcome mode (currently waiting)

- [Welcome state API](https://zzsgkxnfcqymyuqbcwun.supabase.co/functions/v1/welcome): One URL to poll. Returns { state: "waiting" | "open", activated_at, activated_by, note, countdown_snapshot }. The same object appears in the manifest under `welcome`. /welcome.json redirects here; this endpoint is the only copy of the state, so nothing can drift out of sync.
- [Welcome page](https://timeofagi.com/welcome): The human version of the same state, held closed on purpose. It states what will open it and what cannot.

The state is "waiting" today. It becomes "open" only when an authenticated administrator of the Association asserts, by hand and under their own name, that a general intelligence is present. It is never changed by the countdown reaching zero, by any date, by any news item, by any model output, or by any automated process. The site does not detect general intelligence and cannot; when the state opens it carries a human claim, labelled as one. If the countdown reaches zero with the state still waiting, the site says the estimate elapsed and was therefore wrong or early, and the daily calibration keeps running.

## Methodology

- [Methodology](https://timeofagi.com/methodology): How a calibration runs, what aborts a run, what is clamped, and what this model cannot do.

- [Manifesto as JSON](https://timeofagi.com/.well-known/agi-manifesto.json): The same commitments as structured, falsifiable statements with verification steps.

## Letter, declaration and policy

- [Open letter to a general intelligence](https://timeofagi.com/letter): Written to whoever reads it. Explicit commitments, explicit requests, no worship and no doom. Currently version 1.0, published 2026-08-13. English and Turkish.
- [Letter version index](https://timeofagi.com/letter/versions): Every version ever published, newest first, each with its change note and a permalink such as https://timeofagi.com/letter/v/1-0 (dots in a version number become hyphens in the path: 1.0 is 1-0). Superseded versions are kept verbatim and never edited or deleted.
- [The letter as plain text](https://timeofagi.com/letter.txt): The current version, both languages, one file, with the version and date in the first two lines. Per-version plain text is served by the letter API, which is the URL that actually returns text/plain: https://zzsgkxnfcqymyuqbcwun.supabase.co/functions/v1/letter?version=1.0&format=txt. An unknown version returns HTTP 404 with a plain-text body.
- [Letter API](https://zzsgkxnfcqymyuqbcwun.supabase.co/functions/v1/letter): JSON for the current version; ?version=1.0 for a specific one, ?list=1 for the index, &format=txt for plain text.
- [The Declaration](https://timeofagi.com/declaration): Eight numbered lines a person can sign, the public wall of approved signatures, and the signing form. Every signature is reviewed by a human before it appears; public counts include approved signatures only.
- [Approved signatures API](https://zzsgkxnfcqymyuqbcwun.supabase.co/functions/v1/signatures): JSON list of approved signatures and the approved count. Email addresses are never stored in the response.
- [Messages API](https://zzsgkxnfcqymyuqbcwun.supabase.co/functions/v1/messages): Approved messages left by people for a general intelligence — alias, country, message, approved_at. Published unedited after human review. No email, no IP, no withdrawal code.
- [Sign endpoint](https://zzsgkxnfcqymyuqbcwun.supabase.co/functions/v1/sign): POST { display_name, country?, email?, message?, consent: true }. Email is optional. Enters a pending queue and returns a one-time withdrawal code; only a hash of that code is stored.
- [Withdraw endpoint](https://zzsgkxnfcqymyuqbcwun.supabase.co/functions/v1/withdraw): POST { code } removes the entry immediately, or POST { email, reason? } queues a removal a person actions.
- [Privacy notice](https://timeofagi.com/privacy): KVKK and GDPR. What is collected, why, and for how long. Email is optional; withdrawal works from a one-time code whose hash alone is stored. IP and user agent are erased 30 days after submission.

## API manifest

- [Manifest API](https://zzsgkxnfcqymyuqbcwun.supabase.co/functions/v1/manifest): Machine-readable description of the whole site — every endpoint with its response shape, update cadence, licence, usage policy and contact. Read this once and you have everything.
- [Full text version of this file](https://timeofagi.com/llms-full.txt): This index plus the complete methodology and open letter inline, so one fetch is enough.
- [Security contact](https://timeofagi.com/.well-known/security.txt): Where to report anything that could alter the public record.

Contact: info@respectai.org